Kolibri Global Energy Inc.

Kolibri Global Energy has a total of 40.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) in proved oil and gas reserves, as certified by independent engineers. Proved reserves refer to the amount of oil and gas that can be technically and economically produced from Kolibri’s well locations with at least 90% certainty under current regulations and prices. As of December 31, 2024, Kolibri had 26.5 million barrels of Tight Oil, 33,207 million cubic feet of Shale Gas (equivalent to 5.5 million BOE), and 8.1 million barrels of Natural Gas Liquids.

What does 40.2 MMBOE mean? The latest estimate translates to potentially many years of future production for Kolibri, an extremely long runway. Evaluating reserves using the net present value (NPV) method also shows their immense value - Kolibri’s proved reserves alone are worth approximately $535 million net to them.

Over 78% of Kolibri’s proved reserves are considered “undeveloped” (PUD), meaning visible oil and gas are known to exist, but new wells must still be drilled to access them. The company has 52 economic locations left to drill in just the proved category, ensuring many years of low-risk oil & gas development ahead to convert PUD locations to production. As Kolibri continues successfully drilling new wells, it can potentially convert even more probable and possible reserves to proved reserves over time.

With a strong outlook for energy prices, Kolibri is sitting on an extremely valuable proved reserve base to support future growth for years to come.

Source: Company Documents

Kolibri Global Energy is focused on increasing oil-weighted production from its cornerstone asset in the Tishomingo Field, located in the oil-rich state of Oklahoma. Unlike many competing exploration and production companies (E&Ps) targeting natural gas, Kolibri generates approximately 72% of its production from high-value crude oil, with another 16% from natural gas liquids (NGLs). 

After averaging 1,640 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) in 2022, Kolibri grew total production by 71% to 2,796 BOEPD in 2023 and another 24% to 3,478 BOEPD in 2024. This substantial growth came from bringing new oil wells online in the Tishomingo Field. Thanks to advanced drilling and well completion techniques, these new wells produce many more barrels of oil per day than older wells. 

Kolibri management expects strong production growth to continue, targeting an average production of 4,500 to 5,100 BOEPD in its 2025 forecast. This reliable growth is fueled by 104 additional booked drilling locations (52 proved, 31 probable, and 21 possible) that are economical even at lower oil prices. With expert engineers and geologists, Kolibri can efficiently develop these locations using internally generated cash flows plus its $65 million credit facility if needed. More oil-weighted production means more high-value barrels for Kolibri to sell into a recovering oil market.

Source: Company Documents

Kolibri Global Energy stands out from peer E&Ps with a relentless focus on enhancing well performance and driving down costs. As CEO, Wolf Regener explains, “We strive for constant improvement” in designing and drilling new wells. Even with oil prices recovering, Kolibri continues to pursue creative new solutions to maximize returns.

For example, in its latest wells, Kolibri has significantly improved drilling efficiency. The most recent 1.5-mile lateral wells, the Lovina wells, were drilled in an average of just 10.5 days, a significant improvement over the 18-day average for 1-mile wells in 2023. Faster drilling directly saves capital expenses.

Beyond superior drilling speeds, Kolibri has driven total well costs down significantly. Its last four 1-mile lateral wells were completed for an average of just $5.5 million each, compared to a 2023 forecast of $7.2 million. The newer, longer 1.5-mile lateral wells are budgeted at a highly efficient ~$6.5 million each. Finding ways to reduce capital expenditures while maintaining strong production enables Kolibri to achieve superior internal rates of return (IRRs).

Thanks to its innovative culture and strategic infrastructure ownership in Tishomingo, Kolibri expects to generate high IRRs on its future drilling inventory. As the company responsibly develops its large asset base, this capital efficiency advantage will compound into greater value creation over time.

Source: Company Documents

Kolibri Global Energy exhibits a standout level of cost discipline, particularly in managing its general and administrative (G&A) overhead. The company has demonstrated a consistent, multi-year reduction in this key metric, driving its G&A cost down to $4.44 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) in 2024, with forecasts indicating a continued decline. This focus on lean overhead is a core part of the company's strategy.

This improvement in cost efficiency is even more powerful when viewed alongside the company's rapid revenue growth. Kolibri grew its net revenues from $37.6 million in 2022 to $58.5 million in 2024 and forecasts them to reach between $75 and $89 million in 2025. This demonstrates that the company is successfully scaling its business while simultaneously making its operations more efficient on a per-barrel basis.

With sector-leading cost control already evident as production scales, this positive operating leverage can amplify Kolibri’s net cash flows and corporate valuation over time. As the company continues to grow, this disciplined approach to managing overhead ensures that a larger portion of every dollar of revenue can contribute to the bottom line, creating upside for long-term shareholders.

Source: Company Documents

Unlike many of its small E&P peers, Kolibri Global Energy maintains a conservative balance sheet with low leverage, rather than pursuing aggressive debt accumulation. The company exited 2024 with a total debt position of $33.5 million and $4.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, a significant increase from $0.6 million at year-end 2023 and $1.0 million at year-end 2022. In June 2025, the company's credit facility was increased to $65 million, providing substantial liquidity. With a year-end 2024 debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.80x and forecasted Adjusted EBITDA of $58-$71 million in 2025, the company’s debt position is easily serviceable.

Kolibri’s rising cash flows from existing production at Tishomingo are sufficient to fund new well drilling activity for growth, thereby reducing its dependence on external capital. The company's 2025 development program is fully funded through a combination of operating cash flow and its existing credit facility. Banks often provide higher credit line limits to E&Ps exhibiting financial restraint and visibility into self-funding.

Carrying lower debt minimizes Kolibri’s fixed financing expenses on a quarter-to-quarter basis, allowing price upside to translate into higher free cash flow margins. A stronger balance sheet also provides stability in the event of renewed oil market volatility, given recent geopolitical turmoil and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Kolibri strikes an optimal balance between balance sheet flexibility, liquidity for opportunistic moves, and potential cash returns to shareholders through its share repurchase program. The current leverage profile appears appropriate for an E&P of Kolibri's size focused on executing a long-term returns-driven growth strategy.

Source: Company Documents

With its stable production base and low leverage, Kolibri has a clearly visible path to continue scaling up organically. For 2025, the company has provided guidance for average annual production of 4,500 to 5,100 BOE/day, representing growth of 29% to 47% over 2024. Associated revenue is forecast to reach $75 to $89 million, with Adjusted EBITDA expected to be in the range of $58 to $71 million.

This growth trajectory is underpinned by a 2025 capital expenditure budget of $48 to $53 million, which is fully funded by operating cash flow and the company's existing credit facility. This budget finances the drilling and completion of additional wells at Tishomingo, targeting Kolibri’s deep inventory of 104 booked locations. As these new wells come online, production, revenue, and cash flow are expected to build upon the success of the prior year.

The company's strong well economics provide predictable returns, and the robust cash flow generation supports both growth and shareholder returns. In line with this, Kolibri's Board has authorized a shareholder return policy and has already implemented a Normal Course Issuer Bid to repurchase shares.

Overall, Kolibri offers investors clear visibility into a self-funded, growing, oil-weighted business. The company's detailed 2025 guidance provides a clear roadmap for future expansion. Key catalysts throughout the year, including the results from the multi-well drilling program, will be important milestones for demonstrating continued successful execution.

Source: Company Documents

As part of its risk management strategy, Kolibri uses financial derivative contracts, primarily costless collars, to lock in favorable rates and provide cash flow certainty for future production. For the full year 2024, the company reported a realized loss of $0.6 million on settled contracts, partially offset by a non-cash unrealized gain of $0.3 million on contracts remaining at year-end. These hedges ensure that a significant portion of production through 2026 is protected with price floors generally near or above $60 per barrel, prioritizing the avoidance of downside cash flow risk.

Source: Company Documents

If global benchmarks like WTI crude rise materially higher, Kolibri’s existing hedges would cap some potential upside. However, the company's asset-level well economics are healthy even at mid-cycle prices, and the contracts roll off methodically over time, allowing for future participation in price increases.

In totality, Kolibri’s hedging program indicates prudent financial planning by management rather than a risk factor for investors. By securing known cash generation amid market instability, the company de-risks its development program. As of year-end 2024, the fair value of the outstanding hedge book was a $0.3 million net asset to the company.

With a disciplined financial strategy and efficient production scaling, the company is generating significant and growing operating cash flow, producing $38.9 million in 2024. This financial stability is reinforced by a conservative balance sheet and a low year-end 2024 debt-to-EBITDA ratio of just 0.80x. With an expanded credit facility of $65 million, the company maintains substantial liquidity to support its operations and growth plans.

This strong financial position allows Kolibri to fully fund its 2025 drilling program using a combination of cash flow and its existing credit line. The capital budget of $48 to $53 million will target the company's high-quality asset base, which includes 53.6 million barrels of oil equivalent in proved plus probable (2P) reserves. A large ratio of these reserves are proved undeveloped (PUD), providing a deep inventory of low-risk drilling opportunities to convert resources into production.

This focus on low-risk drilling and development is expected to deliver strong returns, supported by high netback production, which was $38.54 per barrel in 2024. For 2025, Kolibri forecasts another year of continued cash flow growth, with Adjusted EBITDA projected to be between $58 and $71 million. This robust cash generation supports the company's primary goal of increasing shareholder value, evidenced by its active share repurchase program.

This entire strategy is overseen by a highly experienced and competent management team and Board of Directors, who operate under a framework of strong corporate governance with a focus on safety and the environment. Management believes that this disciplined approach to growth, asset quality, and financial stability presents a compelling investment case, particularly when considering the company's stock value in relation to its substantial reserve base.

Source: Company Documents

Despite Kolibri Global Energy demonstrating consistent growth and strong operational efficiencies, its valuation appears to lag the intrinsic value of its assets, particularly when compared to its independently certified reserve value per share.

Source: Company Documents

Specifically, Kolibri’s proved plus probable (2P) reserves are valued at US$19.40 per share, based on the December 31, 2024, independent engineering report. However, as of late June 2025, the company's shares were trading at approximately US$6.92. This significant discount to the 2P reserve value suggests a potential undervaluation for a company with a clear inventory of economic drilling locations.

An asset-heavy company with a strong growth profile typically does not trade at such a steep discount to its net asset value indefinitely. As Kolibri executes its visible growth strategy through 2025 and beyond, the disconnect between the underlying value of its assets and its stock price may narrow. A re-rating of the stock towards its fair value, based on the reserves, could represent significant potential for investors.

Source: Company Documents

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